Archive for June, 2010

A Prescription for Innovation

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

A Sign of the Times

ANYONE who thinks it would be easy to get rich selling marijuana in a state where it’s legal should spend an hour with Ravi Respeto, manager of the Farmacy, an upscale dispensary here that offers Strawberry Haze, Hawaiian Skunk and other strains of Cannabis sativa at up to $16 a gram.

The illicit drug market seems to me to be an excellent place to think about the nature of markets and competition (e.g., how much does it dampen demand? How do suppliers emerge and compete? What is the effect of a major bust on industry-wide prices and profits?). And, as we all know, many of those folks make very tall dollars.

But what what would if those drugs were suddenly legal? As the above quotation, taken from a New York Times article on medical marijuana in Colorado, suggests, competition has a funny way of making it hard to make money. So, I suspect that liberalization of drug laws will make for a fascinating route to explore market processes, including the role of innovation and entrepreneurship in these markets. There is also a an excellent piece from The New Yorker on “how medical marijuana is transforming the pot industry” in California.

We’ll be on the lookout for how this all shakes out.

Political Economy of Regulation, Final Exam Question

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

With new financial regulations (potentially, yes, potentially) imminent, today’s question is why Congress is delegating so much of the authority to regulators to craft the actual rules of governance:

Consumer and financial lobbyists alike are marshalling the troops on K Street to impact the decisions regulators make in setting new rules after Congress finished writing the Dodd-Frank Act on Friday. The 2,000-page financial overhaul bill is expected to face a final vote this week, but despite its length, it leaves many specific directives to regulators. Regulators are left with the freedom to decide what kinds of trading are included in the prohibition against banks’ investment of their own money and “how much money banks have to set aside against unexpected losses.”

Now, the first question is, why would Congress delegate so much authority? Is it in deference to regulators’ superior knowledge? Or do you think it has something to do with not taking responsibility? Or do you have another explanation?

The second question has to do with the relationship between industry and regulators. If you believe in the capture theory (and many of you do), what type of explanation would you give for delegation? And, what sort of outcomes might you expect from this round of legislative reform?

Wait, the term is over? What?

US v. Ghana at Cinema, Saturday 1 p.m.

Saturday, June 26th, 2010

The Intrepid Professor Finkler has secured the Cinema in the Warch Campus Center to watch today’s US footballers take an Africa’s final hope, Ghana. The winner will move on to play Uruguay.

I have been puzzled as to why this year’s World Cup has had such a somnambulous effect on me. Is it the heavy prescription narcotics? Is it the gentle buzz of the vuvuzlas? Or perhaps it’s that the teams just aren’t putting the ball in the net?

It does seem that goals this year are even tougher to come by than usual, though that does not (necessarily) mean the games are more boring. It might mean tighter games down the stretch and even more exultation when the ball does go in the net.

Whatever the reason, we hope to see you in the Cinema for popcorn and football and possibly an impromptu game theoretic discussion of goalie strategy versus a penalty kick.

Carrots or Sticks?

Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

Are You A Motivated Self-Starter?

Looking for a motivated self-starter

I’ve seen this video from RSA Animate making the rounds at some of my favorite blog sites.  It’s from Dan Pink, and it gives an 11-minute, Johnny-on-the-spot animated primer on what motivates us.  It’s not actually animation, more like watching someone pretend to animate something, with real cartoon-like pictures being the result. Watching it is quite mesmerizing, and it’s probably more interesting than whatever you’d otherwise be doing for the next few minutes.

The big take home message is that higher-powered incentives don’t necessarily translate into better performance, specifically when “big brain” tasks are involved. Research indicates that people like autonomy in what they are doing and gain non-pecuniary satisfaction from a sense of accomplishment.   Open source success stories like Linux and Wikipedia seem to bear this out.  On the other hand, there seems to be a fundamental tension between an organization’s objective function and individual autonomy.  If they aren’t aligned well, then we wouldn’t expect much innovation that benefits the firm.

So, let’s think about this some more, and meanwhile, enjoy the cool cartoons.  Here is the full collection.

Free or Best Offer

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

The last time I had a yard sale, the point was more to get rid of the stuff in my basement than to raise revenues.  After a couple of hours of slow moving, I changed my price policy to “Free or Best Offer.”  Although a rational choice model probably wouldn’t see this as doing very well financially, several people dropped wads of cash on us as they hauled away bags full of stuff from children clothes to mismatched coffee mugs to old VHS tapes.  Now why would they pay anything, I wondered?  Guilt?  Soon after, a friend of mine involved in community theater told me of a similar “pay what you think it’s worth” pricing scheme that they often run, which is basically “free or best offer.”

It occurred to me that it might not be a bad way to low marginal cost items with low or highly-uncertain demand where the idea is to make a sale.  Obviously, this isn’t an original insight, as there are many cases where firms bolster revenues through some sort of two-part tariff scheme. In the theater case, they were going to do the production, so, ceteris paribus, I would think they would prefer to have some crowd rather than no crowd (especially if they have concessions). In my yard sale case, my costs increased if I didn’t get rid of the stuff.

That's Not Tyler Cowen

Now, there seem to be a number of restaurants implementing this sort of pricing logic, yet this pricing logic doesn’t seem to work for restaurants, does it? If the reasons aren’t obvious, check out this interview with economics pop star, Tyler Cowen, over at Salon.com.

Meanwhile, I recommend you get out there and take advantage while these places are still in business.  Consumers often benefit tremendously from competition like this — many of my favorite restaurants weren’t in business very long at all.  While they were in business, I sure enjoyed eating there.  In this case, however, even if you pay them what you think it’s worth, I don’t think they are going to be around for long.

Regulatory Wishful Thinking or Long Live Pigou

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

Professor Gerard has posted numerous articles on regulatory policy,  some of which rest on the theme that regulators will be captured by the industries they are assigned to regulate.  Simon Johnson, in today’s   Economix  blog, focuses on both oil and financial regulation.  He argues that living wills, that is strategies businesses might design to deal with their own failures, are not the solution for either industry.  He notes that oil companies other than BP had similar plans for managing the risks of a major oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.  In fact, many had hired the same consultant to write their plans.  Such plans demonstrated limited knowledge of the Gulf as well as limited preparedness.  Stated differently, they had very little incentive to write constructive plans.

If we want private companies to respond to potential catastrophes or even continuous negative externalities, we need public policy that encourages them to do just that.  Of course,  such public action requires that our legislators and the Executive branch need to both address the societal tradeoffs our nation must face and face-down the lobbyists who seek to postpone such action.  Perhaps our policy makers should be tested to see if they support the manifesto for the  Pigou Club or a bit smaller challenge, if they know Pigou’s contribution to welfare economics.

The State of Federal Regulation

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

With the financial meltdown and the increasingly-disturbing oil spill, the efficacy of federal regulation is very much in question.  The New Yorker‘s James Surowiecki sees it as a “good government gone bad” problem.

These failures weren’t accidents. They were the all too predictable result of the deregulationary fervor that has gripped Washington in recent years, pushing the message that most regulation is unnecessary at best and downright harmful at worst. The result is that agencies have often been led by people skeptical of their own duties. This gave us the worst of both worlds: too little supervision encouraged corporate recklessness, while the existence of these agencies encouraged public complacency.

I’m pretty sure he uses the word “deregulation” incorrectly here, at least in a conventional sense. His argument is more along the lines that enforcement of (some) regulations has become more relaxed. Of course, economists of the public choice stripe would probably point to the coziness between regulators and the regulated as a predictable result of the political process.

Drawing partly on Daniel Carpenter’s epic new book, Surowiecki points to the FDA as an example of a “consistently effective.” Of course, many economists have pointed at FDA as an example of an agency that exercises too much caution.

Whether that is accurate or not, Megan McArdle has an interesting article in the most recent Atlantic Monthly discussing why the number of drugs coming to market has been going down.  The McArdle piece is especially discouraging with the backdrop of a New York Times piece on the failure of the human genome project to reveal breakthroughs in treatment.

And then there’s this just in.

Out with the Old, In with the Older

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Here are a few links for you as we bid farewell to the 2010 Lawrence economics graduates and brace ourselves for the alumni revelers descending upon campus for Reunion Weekend. As Neil Young might say, economics never sleeps.*

As you have probably noticed, we have more than a passing interest in the oil spill around here.  One of the interests has to do with the liability versus regulation question, and on that front, Resources for the Future (RFF) has background information on oil spill liability law. Mark Cohen at RFF did some of the seminal work on the enforcement of environmental laws, focusing on oil spills, so this is definitely a good place to look.

Another piece has to do with the long-term corporate viability of BP itself – is this spill just a speed bump on the route to long-run profitability? Or will the company be taken over? Or will it go into bankruptcy and attempt to expunge its environmental liability? Or maybe it will agree to a takeover and then go into bankruptcy and expunge its liability and then be taken over (Can they do that? See above).  New York Times writer Andrew Sorkin explores these issues. The current stock price is down to $31 from a 52-week high of $63.  That means that more than half of the company’s “worth” has been wiped out. Ouch.

So, things aren’t going that well over in the old economy.  How about the new economy? If there is anyone with a worse public image than BP right now, it might just be a mysterious cabal that is putting the architecture in place to unleash a malicious computer virus on the world’s computers. Well, we really don’t know who is behind it or why. Mark Bowden at The Atlantic has a fascinating article on the Conficker virus. This case may well fit into William Baumol’s famous definition of entrepreneurship (cited here) that includes “destructive entrepreneurship.” I guess we’ll have to wait and find out.

On a happier innovation front, the most recent EconTalk discusses the fashion industry, where “there is limited protection for innovative designs and as a result, copying is rampant. Despite the ease of copying, innovation is quite strong in the industry and there is a great deal of competition.” Schumpeter was a famously natty fellow.  I wonder what the fashion world thinks of creative destruction?

I imagine without class in session, the summer blogging will slow to a crawl. If you come across anything interesting, feel free to send it my way.

*Then again, probably not.

What’s with the Funny Hat?

Saturday, June 12th, 2010
The flowing robes, the grace... striking

The flowing robes, the grace... striking

In our continuing attempt to understand the world around us, today we will talk about the tradition of wearing cap & gowns for graduation ceremonies.

Well, the first thing you need to know is that this dates back nearly 1000 years, and the academy is a notoriously conservative place. In the words of F.M. Conrford, in his advice to young academics, “Nothing should ever be done for the first time.”* The corollary is that once we get started on something, it’s tough getting us to stop.

With that in mind, Slate.com tackles the regalia question for us:

Standard fashion around 1100 and 1200 A.D. dictated long, flowing robes and hoods for warmth; the greater a person’s wealth, the higher the quality of the fabrics. This attire went out of style around the Renaissance. But sumptuary laws, often designed to prevent people from dressing above their class, kept academics (who were relatively low in the social hierarchy) in simple, unostentatious robes through the 16th century. Thereafter, academics and students at many universities wore robes for tradition’s sake. At Oxford, robes were de rigueur until the 1960s and are still required at graduation and during exams.

And, of course, the Americans played along:

When American universities sprang up in the 17th and 18th centuries, they adopted many Oxbridge academic traditions, including robe-wearing…

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Can You Think of a Radical Idea to End Poverty?

Friday, June 11th, 2010
Guess Again

Think Again

What’s the best idea out there to reduce poverty and improve urban life? Well, Paul Romer thinks a big part of the answer is his charter city idea.  What’s the charter city idea, you ask?  I’m not sure, actually. Professor Finkler has been on me to read about it, and I may finally take him up on it, as the new issue of The Atlantic has a feature piece, “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Ending Poverty.”

How’s that for a provocative title?

The article of course profiles Romer, who is by any account a fascinating character.

In the 1990s, Paul Romer revolutionized economics. In the aughts, he became rich as a software entrepreneur. Now he’s trying to help the poorest countries grow rich—by convincing them to establish foreign-run “charter cities” within their borders. Romer’s idea is unconventional, even neo-colonial—the best analogy is Britain’s historic lease of Hong Kong. And against all odds, he just might make it happen.

We’ll see.

In addition to charter cities and making Aplia happen, Romer is also the hero of David Warsh’s Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations: A Story of Economic Discovery.  The first half of the book is a short course in the history of economic thought; the second is an accounting of Romer’s role in launching endogenous growth theory. Both halfs are well worth reading.

Eyes on the Demise

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

James Hamilton at Econbrowser has a post, similar to one here, about difficulties regulating amidst rapid innovation. The cases of note were the disastrous Gulf spill on the one hand, and the disastrous financial meltdown on the other.

With the help of modern technology, we can now keep an eye on both.

As I’m sure you’ve seen, BP has a live feed up to its gusher, providing a continuous video feed from a mile under the sea.

Where did they get that idea, I wonder?

Perhaps from NPR Planet Money’s round-the-clock coverage of their own “toxic asset” via Toxie Cam.  Here’s just a taste of some screenshots from their thrilling live feed:

And here’s the back story:

We bought Toxie for $1,000 earlier this year. Every month, we get a check. It’s a small piece of the payments people are making on their mortgages. And every month, more houses get foreclosed on and sold off by the bank. When enough houses get sold off by the bank, Toxie will be dead.

She’s not dead yet — but things are looking grim.

Last month, we got $72.41; so far, we’ve received a total of $449.

This month, our payment was zero dollars and zero cents. We could still get another payment next month — maybe.

So, it looks like the toxic asset really was toxic, with a payout of less than 50 cents on the dollar. On the other hand, that seems to be about what my 401K has been doing.

At any rate, video technology is clearly making the world a better place.

Summer Reading

Tuesday, June 8th, 2010

Any student (or colleague, or alum) interested in reviewing a book related to economics or LU economics is welcome to submit a book review to post on the blog.

If you are at a loss, you can check our recommendations or consider the Innovation & Entrepreneurship Reading Group for your summer reading inspiration.

Joga Bonito

Tuesday, June 8th, 2010

It’s June again, and that means it’s time to figure out exactly who you are going to pick to win this year’s FIFSA World Cup.  What’s that? You’re busy with finals? With packing up and leaving campus? With finding a job and shopping for Ramen noodles? Who has time to research the top teams?

analystWhy, the investment banks, of course.

According to the Financial Times, Danske Bank, JP Morgan, UBS, Evolution, Goldman Sachs, have all put their top personnel on the matter and made their predictions.  Well, Goldman only picked the semi-finalists because, you know, they don’t want to take any unnecessary risks.

It looks like la Brasilia is the big favorite this year, with a JP Morgan giving a hat tip to the English.

How do they do it?, you ask. Here’s one case:

Danske are using six factors (income level, population size, football history and tradition, current form of national team, presence of ‘superstars,’ and home field advantage) to gauge the teams relative strength… Then they simulate the Cup schedule.

That’s right, linear regression. OLS.  What can’t it do?

For those of you US football fans out there, the yanks are better than even odds to advance past the group play, and about 90:1 to win it all right now.   Spain is actually the gambling favorite to win it all right now at 4:1, with the Brazilians just behind at 9:2.

The New Republic has a blog

Interested in a Political Career — How Tall Are You?

Sunday, June 6th, 2010

Slate has an amusing piece on what political coverage would look like if political scientists wrote it. Here’s just a taste:

Democrats hope that passing health care and financial regulatory reform will give them enough momentum to win in November. Unfortunately, there’s little relationship between legislative victories and electoral victories. Also, what the hell is “momentum”?

Prospects for an energy bill, meanwhile, are looking grim, since Obama has spent all his political capital. He used to have a lot. Now it’s gone. Why winning legislative battles builds momentum but saps political capital, I have no idea. Just go with it.

In related news, things are heating up in Oshkosh.

Summer Reading Opportunity

Sunday, June 6th, 2010

With the previous post, Professor Galambos has kicked off this year’s LU Economics Summer Reading Fun, or something like that.  Any student (or colleague, or alum) interested in reviewing a book related to economics or LU economics is welcome to submit a book review that we will post right here on the blog.

Here are some suggestions that I am very interested in learning about, but likely won’t read myself:

Brad DeLong and Stephen Cohen, The End of Influence: What Happens When Other Countries Have the Money?

When you have the money–and “you” are a big, economically and culturally vital nation–you get more than just a higher standard of living for your citizens. You get power and influence, and a much-enhanced ability to act out. When the money drains out, you can maintain the edge in living standards of your citizens for a considerable time (as long as others are willing to hold your growing debts and pile interest payments on top). But you lose power, especially the power to ignore others, quite quickly–though, hopefully, in quiet, nonconfrontational ways. An you lose influence–the ability to have your wishes, ideas, and folkways willingly accepted, eagerly copied, and absorbed into daily life by others. As with good parenting, you hope that by the time this happens those ideas and ways have been so thoroughly integrated that they have become part of what is normal and regular abroad as well as at home; sometimes, of course, they don’t. In either case, the end is inevitable: you must become, recognize that you have become, and act like a normal country. For America, this will be a shock: American has not been a normal country for a long, long time.

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