Archive for September, 2010

Second Annual Predict the Nobel Prize in Economics

Thursday, September 30th, 2010

As Professor Finkler points out, the Nobel Prize in economics will be awarded on October 11. That must mean that it’s time for the Second Annual LU Pick the Nobel contest.

So, who should you pick? Well, one strategy is to check out the Thomson Reuters picks from Science (Alesini, Kiyotaki, Moore, Murphy). If you don’t like any of those to win, you might peruse the “Vegas” odds and see who you like there. As of me typing this, these odds do not appear to be out yet, but keep an eye out here and check here are last year’s odds. The same favorites from last year are obviously in play for this year — Eugene Fama for his efficient markets and Paul Romer for endogenous growth theory, Aplia, and charter cities.

Another good choice might be Emmanuel Saez, who is fresh off winning a MacArthur “Genius” Grant. As a dark horse, you might pick the prolific blogging superstar, Tyler Cowen, for his work on the economics of culture.

Or, you can always defer to The Simpsons for your pick (Bhagwati).

A sentimental favorite, at least for me, is Armen Alchian. Don Boudreux points us to this essay and says that in a just world he would have already won the prize.

My pick, which I forgot to pick in the original post, is Richard Thaler.  I just hope that pick doesn’t somehow curse me.

To enter the contest, submit a pick in the comments or via email to me. One entry per person, need not be present in Sweden to win. This year’s winner will take home an authentic piece of Schumptoberfest merchandise. Ties will be decided by Random.org at the Economics Tea.

The 300 Challenge, Parts 1 & 2

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Hey, that's not Steven Landsburg

What is it with Steven Landsburg and apples?

PART 1: Audrey shops at Wegman’s supermarket, where she spends $20 a week to buy 10 apples and 5 bananas.  IF she bought the same 10 apples and 5 bananas at Top’s supermarket, she’d pay $30.   True or False:  Audrey is wise to continue shopping at Wegman’s.  (Hint: This is easy).

PART 2: You earn $100.  You can use your $100 to buy 100 current apples, 200 future apples, or any combination in between.

Consider a 50% tax on wages versus a 40% tax on all income (that is, wages and interest income)  and assume both taxes raise the same amount of revenue.

Which tax do you prefer?  Under which tax do you consume more (and save less) today? (Hint: I’m not sure if this is easy or not).

Professor Shober: Appleton not part of the Russ belt

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Government department Professor Arnold Shober is in the news, handicapping the fall elections for the Appleton Post-Crescent.  Here’s a portion of the transcript in response to a question on whether Wisconsin Democrats are going to be taken to the woodshed this November:

The answer to that question is really how well Russ Feingold does. He’s the top race in the state. We think about governor, but Feingold gets a lot more attention. If he has trouble — and a series of recent polls suggest that he really does — then it will very bad. If he can’t carry reliable Democrats into the polling booth, nobody can.

Polling out last week suggested that, in northeast Wisconsin, Ron Johnson is up 60-40. That means Steve Kagen (in the 8th Congressional District) is certainly out. Penny Bernard Schaber (in the 57th Assembly District) is most certainly out. Tom Nelson’s seat (in the 5th Assembly District) will probably flip, and on and on and on, because that’s a big margin.

Certainly, everyone voting for Russ Feingold is going to be voting for a Democrat. He’s a maverick, but he’s definitely on the left. So if he does poorly, Democrats across Wisconsin are going to be in big trouble. If he can hold it even, it may not be so bad.

Emphasis is mine (Prof. Shober typically doesn’t speak in bold font), and included so I could use the pun in the title.

You can see the latest polling results outside of Professor Shober’s door right here on Briggs 2nd.

Place a bet on the next Nobel Prize Winner in Economics

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Nobel Prize winners in economics will be announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences on Monday, October 11th.  Harvard’s Economics Department operates a pool to predict the next prize winners.  If you wish to participate (at $1 per entry) click here.

Interdependent Utility Functions

Tuesday, September 28th, 2010

Does knowing what your peers make matter to how happy you are?  Certainly, the utility functions that I sketch in Econ 300 say no.  As Ray Fisman puts it in a recent piece at Slate, “Why do we care what those around us make? It doesn’t affect the real estate or furniture or sushi dinners we can afford.”

On the other hand, of course it matters. And Fisman continues:

[I]n recent years, economics has become both more social and behavioral, borrowing evidence and ideas from elsewhere in the social sciences. Economists now acknowledge that we constantly judge our own accomplishments in comparison to others, and salaries serve as one ready benchmark. People (and perhaps monkeys, too) are also averse to inequality—unequal pay for equal work just isn’t fair (especially if you’re the one who drew the short straw).

Monkeys? Wow.

Fisman talks about an ingenious study by group of economists, including David Card and MacArthur genius grant winner Emmanuel Saez, that investigated how differences in pay affect variables like job satisfaction.  If you are interested in how economists think about these things and how they evaluate them empirically, this paper is worth checking out.  The abstract is below the fold: (more…)

Economics Resources

Tuesday, September 28th, 2010

As I head into mid-term here (yes, the first 300 exam is a week from today), I note that I am even more behind than usual.  Part of this is due to overreaching on my professional commitments.  Part is teaching Freshman Studies and wading through The Republic with the rest of the bunch.  Part is the preparations for the upcoming Schumptoberfest Creative Instruction weekend (we have some space for those of you who missed before).  And, drinking tea and who knows what all else.

So, for those of you looking for content, you might check out the Links section down the right-hand margin. One of those links is the RSS feed for recent economics acquisitions from The Mudd.   There are some great items there, including Nouriel Roubini’s new book, as well as some treatments of development in East Asia and Brazil.

You might also check out the link to my recommendations.   The list includes some of the blogs I frequent, resources available at The Mudd (including some excellent databases), and a list of some other handy sites.   It’s a lot easier to find good stuff if you look in the best places first, that’s for sure.

If there are some other resources you think I should add, please let me know.

Stuck in the you know where

Tax Credits and Income Tax Exemptions are the “Hidden Hand of Government Spending”

Monday, September 27th, 2010

Whether the government gives you a tax credit of $100 towards some specific expenditure or spends a $100 on that same item and thus reduces the out-of-pocket cost to you, the effects are the same:  1) a increased deficit to be funded, 2) distorted incentives.

Edward Kleinbard in the Fall 2010 issue of the journal Regulation argues that these incentives in 2008 amounted to foregone tax revenue of roughly $1.2 trillion per year which exceeds what was raised through the individual income tax ($1.1 trillion) and “is more than twice as much as all non-defense discretionary spending ($528 billion.)”

For example, mortgage interest rate deductions, health insurance premium deductions, and energy tax credits all distort our economic choices (often in regressive fashion) and deepen our budgetary abyss.  More of these, which seems the purview of both political parties, does not make our aggregate fiscal situation better, it just means that the day of reckoning when it comes, will be much more difficult than it otherwise might be.

EconTea Today

Monday, September 27th, 2010

Bring your thoughts. Bring your questions and your thirst for knowledge to EconTea today at 4:30. Your favorite faculty members are excited to interact with you on the topics of the day.

Regime Uncertainty: Did the New Deal End the Great Depression?

Monday, September 27th, 2010

There is a continuing debate, as you must know by now, as to whether Keynesian fiscal stimulus is an effective macroeconomic policy tool, especially with the US economy stuck in its current doldrums.  There is probably no bigger detractor to this idea than Robert Higgs of the Independent Institute.  Many on the Keynesian side say the $750 billion fiscal stimulus wasn’t big enough.

Robert Higgs says phooey.

Higgs argues that the whole Keynesian paradigm is out of whack, that, in fact, more robust governmental involvement in times of a crisis creates pervasive uncertainties for the private sector.  This “regime uncertainty,” whether it be from potential tax increases or other regulatory hurdles, shakes investor confidence and stifles capital formation.  Who is going to play a game when the rules of the game are subject to potentially radical change?

Those of you who have taken Economics 240 might recall Higgs’ “ratchet effect,” but he is perhaps better know for this regime uncertainty idea.  Higgs forwarded some of these arguments in the Journal of Economic History, and has recently bolstered it both in the Independent Review. He doesn’t see this as a unifying macro theory, but more as an element that is generally ignored (or ridiculed) by many macro theorists.

You can also catch Higgs talking about these issues with Russ Roberts on EconTalk.

Caveat Emptor

Saturday, September 25th, 2010

It might shock, shock many honor-bound Lawrentians that there are college students out there that don’t do their own work.  In fact, as many of you are likely aware, there is a robust market for term papers out there that allow you to buy papers from levels from high school to Ph.D. on topics ranging from, well, from Moses Abramovitz to Frederik Ludvig Bang Zeuthen.  It appears the going rate is about $10-$15 per page depending on how soon you need it.

This is certainly not a new phenomenon.  Years back, Seth Stevenson surveyed the market and gave a few pointers for cheaters and lazeabouts to choose the right site to purchase a paper, and he looks at some of the market characteristics.  For example, a custom paper is about twice as expensive as an off-the-rack piece.

But that was nearly 10 years ago, and certainly the market has matured by then.  For a more recent treatment, behavioral economist Dan Ariely dipped his toe in to see what he could find, and what he found was well worth reading. Here are a few snippets:

We ordered a typical college term paper from four different essay mills, and as the topic of the paper we chose…  (surprise!) Cheating…  We submitted the four essays to WriteCheck.com, a website that inspects papers for plagiarism and found that two of the papers were 35-39% copied from existing works.

Someone plunks down $100 for a paper, and still gets dinged for cheating?  Now that smarts.  Exactly what recourse do you have in that situation?  I guess you ask for your money back:

We decided to take action with the two largely plagiarized papers, and contacted the essay mills requesting our money back. Despite the solid proof that we provided, the companies insisted that they did not plagiarize. One company even tried to threaten us by saying that they will get in touch with the dean at Duke to alert them to the fact that we submitted work that is not ours.

I like their moxie — deny, deny, deny, threaten.

The comments to Ariely’s post are also interesting.

Stephen Colbert Testifies on Immigration

Friday, September 24th, 2010

Don’t miss Colbert’s testimony before Congress on immigration.  The guy clearly understands markets.

Beer Distributors Apply Political Economy Herbicide

Friday, September 24th, 2010

It is a good couple of weeks for those interested in the economics of (and innovation in) illicit drug markets. First, HBO started up its mega super miniseries,  Boardwalk Empire, about how an Atlantic City official built an organized crime empire following the enactment of the 22nd amendment prohibiting the production and sale of alcohol.

Then we find out that there is an online “weed” price clearinghouse.

And, now, via Marginal Revolution, we learn that the beer distributors actively oppose marijuana legalization in California.  So quick 100 and political economy question — do beer distributors think marijuana and beer are more like complements or substitutes?  To date, there is no word on whether manufacturers of Cheetos have taken a public stance on the isssue.

Interestingly, the teachers union supports legalization because of “the revenue that could be raised for the state.”

Where Do Good Ideas Come From?

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

I’m not sure, because Steven Johnson’s Where Good Ideas Come From isn’t out for a few weeks, and all I have is this four-minute video.  Well, actually, I also have this longer video from over at TED (the new Harvard, I’m told).  But as I’ve often said, movie, shmoovie, I’ll wait for the book.

Are “Weed” Prices Sticky?

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

Competition is on my mind.  How do firms compete?  By price?  Quality?  Product differentiation?  Threatening potential entrants with physical violence?   All good questions.

But if we just stick to price competition, how much price variation is there across markets?  And why?  Monday at the Econ TeaBA, we  heard from a savvy young entrepreneurial type who claimed to be able to exploit exchange rate differences by selling used American stuff to Canadian customers.  Wow!

Of course, that whole enterprise sounded pretty idiosyncratic, so it is not entirely surprising that the law of one price didn’t seem to apply.  But what about in markets where the product quality is fairly homogeneous and there are limited barriers to entry.  Say, for instance, marijuana.

As most of you know, the US and most of the rest of the world restricts production and sale of most drugs, including marijuana, or “weed,” as it is sometimes called (among other terms).  But my understanding is that even the threat of legal sanctions, fines, and even prison do not eliminate don’t stop a robust trade.  Indeed, in his “Dear Undercover Economist” column, Tim Harford takes on this unusual question:

Dear Economist,

I have been a client of weed dealers in North America since the mid-1980s and no matter who the vendor, the price has remained $10 a gramme. I don’t think anything in 25 years has stayed fixed in price like weed has.

Dealers might have some power to increase prices, as it’s illegal, and there are some significant barriers to entry, such as getting arrested. But if I don’t like the prices, it’s pretty easy to grow some on my own, because it “grows like a weed”, even if it might not be as good as the dealer’s Cannabis sativa.

So how did we end up at $10 a gramme?

Sebastian

Dude, that is a puzzle, indeed.  My first response is supply (a.k.a., “more weed”) would keep the real price from falling, but that doesn’t affect what economists call the “price stickiness” question.  That is, why $10?

Check out Harford’s response here.

Right about $10

On the other hand, I have to wonder who Sebastian’s source is, as this past week, I was alerted to a site that tracks prices of various quality marijuana, www.priceofweed.com.   The site stratifies prices based on self-reported quality, and also logs the amount of the purchase (lots of bulk discounts, of course). average price of a high-quality ounce of weed is listed as north of $400 here in America’s dairyland.  The site legend of US prices suggests that Wisconsin marijuana is the pricey side.  The site also contains information about “social acceptance” and “law enforcement.”  So, one might expect some relationship between price, levels of enforcement, amount and quality.

A site that launched a thousand econometrics projects.  Excellent.

Schumptoberfest Sign Up Continues

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

I have logged several folks for the Schumptoberfest weekend weekend, October 22 to 24, at Björklunden.  If you are interested and would like IS credit, please sign up with me by Friday.  I have some IS forms tacked on the board outside my office.  it is best that you sign up by Friday.

Again, the requirements are:

  • Complete the assigned readings.
  • Travel to Björklunden over reading period (Friday evening until Sunday afternoon) and participate in our workshop.
  • Write a short response paper (3-5 pages) to the ideas and discussions from the weekend.

We would like to engage students who have a good understanding of micro theory and are interested in innovation and entrepreneurship. The readings dovetail nicely with my Economics 400 (IO) and 450 (theory of the firm) courses.

I am in the process of completing the reading list and will provide both PDFs and reading guides for the materials within the next week.