Prediction Markets v. Polls, Cont.

This coming Tuesday in Wisconsin is the Republican Senate primary to replace retiring Senator Herb Kohl.  The race is quite hotly contested by former governor Tommy Thompson, Madison banker Eric Hovde, and former state representative Mark Neumann.

The latest poll is out, with Thompson enjoying a rather chunky lead at 28% to Hovde’s 20% and Neumann’s 18%.

As of 6 p.m. today, however, InTrade tells a much different story. And that story is that Hovde is up (a 40% chance of winning), followed by Neumann (35%) and then Thompson (32%). Huh.

So, who are you going to believe?

A couple of things to notice here.  First, yes, I know the InTrade odds add up to more than 100%.  Second, earlier this week, InTrade had Hovde with a commanding lead of 70% or so.  Oh, and a third thing, Tommy Thompson can do more pushups than any of the junior professors in the department.

More on this later.

UPDATE:  The prediction market now has Thompson as the odds-on favorite.

A Second Update: Thompson wins.

One thought on “Prediction Markets v. Polls, Cont.”

  1. For a different perspective, we run a fantasy-money U.S.-based prediction market. Tommy Thompson has an over 90% chance of winning in our market and has been the heavy favorite for weeks.

    Totally unrelated, our company is based in Chicago but I had a chance to visit Appleton last weekend to see some family. Great town!

Comments are closed.